Mebane Faber has created a career out of his timing model. Fair enough, the article (click here) that he wrote and published back in 2006 was a breath of fresh air. Click here to go see a list of investment books that he recommends.
The posts you read sometimes take me weeks to research and develop to the point of being finished. That's a problem -- not the time it takes, but the fact that we all implicitly make an equality: finished = "can be published now". All the posts are interesting long before they are finished. A better way to decide whether … Continue reading LeanPosts
This post is a LeanPost: it will be developed further depending on feedback from my readers. See my note here on what a LeanPost is. Many companies are these days talking about reducing the balance sheet. Another term used is de-leveraging. In the simplest terms, this just means that a company is reducing the number of … Continue reading What does ‘reduce the balance sheet’ mean?
This post is a LeanPost: it will be developed further depending on feedback from my readers. See my note here on what a LeanPost is. Update, January 2014: Dear Reader, for the last year I have been struggling to find time to work on this blog, and this article is particularly in need of further work. … Continue reading Galois Theory for dummies
Armed with the Hardy Decomposition for option prices, it now becomes much easier to understand why the smile exists. To be clear, options trader might use the smile to manage supply & demand, but here we discuss the mathematical basis for smile - which is important if you want to understand how to generate smile … Continue reading Smile, it’s Volga!
I am in the process of writing a post on corporate finance, and have been doing some research into debt levels and leverage. It's part of an effort to understand more about companies, and specifically to answer the question of why quite a few companies have been struggling to get through the crisis. There are … Continue reading The history of a shop
We all know that option prices are calculated with the Black-Scholes formula, using a volatility, time-to-maturity, strike and forward. Typically you just chuck them all into your computer and let it spit out the number. Trouble with this is how do you get an intuition for prices, especially when you are looking at options trades … Continue reading Calculating option prices in your head
This short post is primarily to give links to three excellent articles on macro economics by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater. The first, a 'template for understanding' how economies work, is better than anything I have ever seen in introductory books on economics. The other two articles take a closer look at the dynamics of debt and … Continue reading The current crisis in historical perspective
I came across an interesting presentation given by one of the senior members of PIMCO UK, a chap called Mike Amey. Click here to see it (a PDF). What I especially like about this presentation is that it covers a lot of the main topics that I hear investors discussing at the moment, ranging from … Continue reading Fixed-income investment strategies in the age of the New Normal
Some of my artwork sold at Bonham's. Have a look (click here). While I was at art college I spent some time working with Yorkshire-based landscape artist David Blackburn, and left my few drawings with him as part of his collection. He has sold off the lot. There were some lovely drawings and paintings there. I … Continue reading Bonham’s sells my Artwork